Tag Archive: Judith Collins

Judith Collins – National’s Ardern?

I’m a bit late blogging on this, but one of the interesting things from the Newshub poll on Monday was that Judith Collins registered on the preferred PM stakes – at 3.7%.

She was very low compared to everyone else, however – Ardern was at 41%, Bridges at 9%, and Peters at 4.6%.

Already, this feels very reminiscent of Andrew Little’s failed Labour leadership last year and the slowly rising in popularity Ardern.

Little was never anywhere high in the preferred PM stakes. But always behind, generally at around 5% mark, was Ardern.

In fact, Collins first appearance in the preferred PM stakes is higher than Arden’s first appearance – Collins is at 3.7%, while when Ardern first appeared, she was at 3.5%

So while its early days yet, the signs appear to be similar – An uninspiring opposition leader, and a woman MP slowly gaining on him in the preferred PM stakes.

However, the saving grace for opposition leader Simon Bridges may be National’s popularity – for the moment, National is the highest polling party, even if they are below the center-left coalition.

And who will want to lead a coup against such a high polling party – for the moment, at least.

 

Adams takes Finance

Welp, I got it wrong again.

Rather than Judith Collins, Simon Bridge’s closest contender for the leadership, Amy Adams, has picked up the finance role.

It makes sense. Bridges needs to keep Adams onside, and giving her the plum finance role is a good way to do that. National simply must not have a split similar to Labour’s David Cunliffe-David Sherear split.

However, Judith Collins is an asset for any opposition, and Bridges would be wise to give her a promotion.

However, what Bridges plans for her and the rest of the caucus, will remain for now, a mystery.

 

 

What will happen in the shadow cabinet reshuffle?

Simon Bridges is the new National Party leader, and a cabinet reshuffle is on the horizon.

So, what could happen? Who will go up, and who will go down?

Here are my predictions:

UP:

Judith Collins – In the article I linked above, Bridges heavily praised Collins, and how she would make a “great attack dog.” Likely to get the Finance role.

Mark Mitchell – During the leadership contest, Mark raised his profile with the public and had a good try at the leadership. A possible contender for Foreign Affairs.

Jami-Lee Ross – At just 32 and already chief whip, giving him a major portfolio like Transport or Immigration would be a clear sign of the “generational change” that Bridges has talked about.

DOWN:

Gerry Brownlee – He’s been in the game for 21 years now, and was a part of the Key/English era that National will hope to shake off as they build towards the “Bridges era.” Most likely the unfortunate victim of generational change.

Chris Finlayson – Like Brownlee, a relic of the Key/English era. Also looks like generational change will force him to move over.

David Carter – There’s definitely a pattern with those who I am predicting to go down –  generational change. The same holds true for David Carter, as the former speaker of the house could well be pushed aside.

These are just my predictions though. I could well be (and probably am), well off the mark.

 

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