Tag Archive: Dan Bidois

Bidois wins Northcote

The Northcote by-election has been won, and National has held the seat, with their candidate Dan Bidois winning.

Congrats Dan and condolences Shanan.

Labour did move their share of the vote up from 2017 from 34 to 44%, but the kicker for them is that National’s share of the vote barely fell at all – their’s went from 52.8 to 51.1%.

So all of the Labour’s vote was cannibalized from the Greens and NZ First.

I think this shows the problem that Labour has – while their share of the vote continues to rise, it is all coming from the Greens and NZ First. National voters are staying staunchly with National.

How do they go about fixing that problem? I’m not sure.

However, all in all, this was a well-run campaign by Labour, and cutting a majority of 6000 down to 1000 is no simple task.

Finally, this has changed my perception of what type of seat Northcote is – before, I would have said it is a safe National seat, now, I’m calling it a seat that leans National. A well-run campaign there by Labour in 2020 could see them wrestle it off National.

Once again, congratulations Dan.

What constitutes good and bad in the Northcote by-election

Tomorrow, the Northcote by-election happens.

So, what is a good or a bad result?

An amazing result for Labour and terrible for the Nats would be if Labour’s Shanan Halbert wins Northcote. That shows huge support of the government in an electorate that is generally considered a safe National seat – and all that happening with the Greens splitting the left vote.

A great result for Labour and the left and a narrow escape for the Nats would be if National’s Dan Bidois wins, but the combined left vote – Labour + Greens – is higher then National’s total. Labour will be bitterly disappointed, of course, but it still shows huge support of the government.

Should Bidois win by around 3000 – 4000 votes, Labour will be concerned, but the Nats will be satisfied. Labour will have cut National’s majority compared to last years general election in Northcote, but by not enough for a new government, who generally gain popularity when they are still new and fresh.

Should Bidois win by over 5000 votes, National will be elated. National won Northcote by 6000 votes in the general election last year, and when you factor in the fact that by-elections tend to have lower turn out, it’s almost the same as building on their majority. This would show no new support for Labour and the government – something which would be very troubling given that new governments are generally more popular.

Tomorrow will most certainly be an interesting day.

Northcote by-election Bridges’ first test

Two years ago, NZ First upset National by winning the Northland by-election.

Now, the question is whether Labour can do the same thing in the Northcote by-election.

Stuff reported:

The Northcote by-election might look like a romp in the park for National – but in reality could be anyone’s. National launched its campaign in Northcote on Sunday, and has a lot riding on its candidate Dan Bidois holding the seat.

National’s leader Simon Bridges knows how quickly things can turn better than most. He was at the sharp end of the Northland drubbing, after scarpering up there in its early days to deliver locals the promise of 10 new bridges.

The Northcote by-election is Simon Bridges’ first test as National leader.

If National’s candidate Dan Bidois wins the seat, then Simon Bridges can feel relief that, at least for the moment, the country, and what is a safe National seat, approve of him.

If Labour pull out a shocker and win Northcote, however, then Simon Bridges should be worried, especially as Labour have to deal with the Greens splitting the left vote.

And while I do see it as exceedingly unlikely that Labour and Shanan Halbert will win Northcote, it is worth noting that Bridges was only at 10% in the preferred PM poll, compared to Ardern’s 37%.

And I can also disgruntled Northcote residents using the by-election as a protest vote.

Simon Bridges, National, and Dan Bidois must all campaign like it’s the 2020 election – there is no way they can afford a repeat of Northland back in 2015.

 

 

 

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