Tag Archive: cabinet reshuffles

Who could go to cabinet?

As the political year kicks off, Jacinda Ardern has delayed an anticipated cabinet reshuffle, which now looks to have been postponed to after May.

One of the biggest problems for Ardern is the lack of gender diversity in her cabinet. In a cabinet of 20, just six are women, and that goes against Labour’s line that cabinets should generally have an equal amount of men and women.

Well, there used to be seven women in the cabinet. But Clare Curran was embroiled in scandal after scandal and add to that her failings in open government, she was never really cut out for the job and was given the axe.

Meka Whariti, another women minister outside of cabinet was forced to stand aside after allegations arose that she assaulted a staff member.

Another minister who’s had problems is Iain Lees-Galloway, who late last year was constantly under fire due to his handling of the Karel Sroubek deportation case.

Personally, I don’t think Lees-Galloway will be thrown under the bus, though I do think that he will shift portfolios.

And while there (should be) just one cabinet place up for grabs, there are always opportunities for MPs to be ministers outside of cabinet.

So, who could make the step up?

Kris Faafoi

Probably the MP deserves a call up to cabinet most. Currently a minister outside of cabinet, he has proven himself again and again as a safe pair of hands. When Curran lost Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media portfolio, it was Faafoi who took it, and the same for Customs when Whariti had to stand down. Unfortunately, due to Ardern and Labour’s wish for more women in cabinet, Faafoi may be forced to wait.

Ruth Dyson

Ruth Dyson has now been in parliament for 25 years, or since 1993. As a minster under Helen Clarke during the Fifth Labour Government, she’s one of the few in Labour who have had previous ministerial experience. She should be able to get her head down and get on with the job without attracting too much attention, which is what Labour needs right now. My pick for who will go to cabinet.

Louisa Wall

As an MP since 2008, and with big name recognition as it was her bill that led to the legalization of same sex marriage, I was somewhat surprised to see Wall get nothing when cabinet was formed. With name recognition and a massive achievement under her belt, Wall would generate some excitement. However, her list ranking of 26 last election, 14 places lower than what it was at 2014 implies that she may have trouble with the Labour higher ups, so I see Wall going into cabinet as unlikely.

Kiri Allan

If Labour really want to spring a surprise, Kiri Allan would be the way to go. Allan only arrived in parliament at last election, yet is highly regarded, and when I interviewed her after the last election, she was really impressive. Out of the MPs I interviewed, I would say that she’s the most likely to be a future PM. Should she be moved to cabinet, I can see her doing a very impressive job, but she is still the riskiest move for Labour at the moment, and risky isn’t what the party needs.

Still, it is important to recognize that as Ardern has said, any cabinet reshuffle is a long way away, and it also important to note that this is just my speculation.

Oh, and, yeah. I’m back writing at this blog after a long hiatus. Good to be back!

National’s new shadow cabinet

National unveiled it’s new shadow cabinet yesterday, and there were some definite winners and losers. 

Judith Collins took up the housing portfolio – meaning she may face off with Phil Twyford over what is possibly New Zealand’s biggest issue. That’ll be a battle and a half.

Todd McClay was another definite winner – taking Gerry Brownlee’s Foreign Affairs, as well as tourism and trade, he’s up to fifth in the rankings.

Mark Mitchell was also promoted to the front bench as he took justice, defence and disarmament. It’s clear his leadership campaign did not go unrewarded.

But there are those who were given a demotion as well.

Gerry Brownlee now sits outside of the top ten, his most major role now being the Shadow Leader of the House.

Nick Smith took a dive as well, losing his environment portfolio, and now he only holds the State Services and electoral law reform roles.

For Brownlee and Smith, the message is clear – It’s time to step aside, generational change is here.

And for the rest of the caucus, they’ll be banking on Bridge’s generational change to counter Jacindamania.

Adams takes Finance

Welp, I got it wrong again.

Rather than Judith Collins, Simon Bridge’s closest contender for the leadership, Amy Adams, has picked up the finance role.

It makes sense. Bridges needs to keep Adams onside, and giving her the plum finance role is a good way to do that. National simply must not have a split similar to Labour’s David Cunliffe-David Sherear split.

However, Judith Collins is an asset for any opposition, and Bridges would be wise to give her a promotion.

However, what Bridges plans for her and the rest of the caucus, will remain for now, a mystery.

 

 

What will happen in the shadow cabinet reshuffle?

Simon Bridges is the new National Party leader, and a cabinet reshuffle is on the horizon.

So, what could happen? Who will go up, and who will go down?

Here are my predictions:

UP:

Judith Collins – In the article I linked above, Bridges heavily praised Collins, and how she would make a “great attack dog.” Likely to get the Finance role.

Mark Mitchell – During the leadership contest, Mark raised his profile with the public and had a good try at the leadership. A possible contender for Foreign Affairs.

Jami-Lee Ross – At just 32 and already chief whip, giving him a major portfolio like Transport or Immigration would be a clear sign of the “generational change” that Bridges has talked about.

DOWN:

Gerry Brownlee – He’s been in the game for 21 years now, and was a part of the Key/English era that National will hope to shake off as they build towards the “Bridges era.” Most likely the unfortunate victim of generational change.

Chris Finlayson – Like Brownlee, a relic of the Key/English era. Also looks like generational change will force him to move over.

David Carter – There’s definitely a pattern with those who I am predicting to go down –  generational change. The same holds true for David Carter, as the former speaker of the house could well be pushed aside.

These are just my predictions though. I could well be (and probably am), well off the mark.

 

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