Tag Archive: NZ elections

Tolley and Allan

National MP Anne Tolley is going list only, with her sight set on the speakers chair.

Tolley is already assistant speaker so this move isn’t a huge surprise in my opinion.

The fact that she’s going on just the list also means that should National not win the 2020 election, Tolley could resign quietly without a costly by-election following her failure to become speaker.

That’s a cynical way of looking at it, but there’s been a trend of high profile National list MPs doing just that this term. Bill English, Chris Finlayson, and Steven Joyce are the main examples.

Moving to pure speculation, the electorate that Tolley will leave is the East Coast electorate. That’s also the electorate where Labour list MP Kiri Allan is based.

Allan has the greatest asset an MP can have in bucket loads – charisma. I know, because she was the first MP that I interviewed in the podcast that kicked this whole blogging thing off.

While I don’t know how those in the East Coast electorate feel (if you live there, tell me) but I’m willing to bet that Allan can at the very least put a sizable dent in Tolley’s majority of 4800. In fact, going against someone that isn’t an incumbent, I think there’s a chance that Allan could pull of an upset and win the electorate.

Definitely one to keep an eye on in 2020.

Give the Greens a deal

The Herald has a very interesting read on the race for Auckland Central, with the two major players being National’s Nikki Kaye and the Green’s Chlöe Swarbrick.

The article opens the (small) possibility of Swarbrick beating Kaye, and it got me thinking – Labour giving the Greens an electorate deal in Auckland Central makes sense.

Swarbrick is, after all, the second most popular politician in NZ (first would have to be Jacinda). For Auckland Central, the Greens + Labour combined also beat National for both party and electorate vote in 2017.

With an electorate seat, the Greens would be safe – something they are far from at the moment. They’re hovering at around 6-8% in the polls, but National’s objective is to destroy the minor parties.

Making sure that the Greens survive is in Labour’s interests – a teal deal will never happen.

I also imagine that because the Greens are hovering so close to that 5% line, there are Labour supporters who will strategically vote for the Greens come election time. With the Greens at least having a decent chance in an electorate, those voters may return to Labour.

The above paragraph is, however, only an educated guess, so take it as that.

Of course, winning Auckland Central is far certain – Kaye defeated Ardern herself in 2011 and 2014, but in both elections Labour + the Greens combined would have beaten Kaye and National. So I’m willing to say that Swarbrick with Labour’s endorsement would oust Kaye.

Do it Labour. It’s a sound strategy.

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