Tag Archive: Colmar Brunton poll

Not all that bad for the coalition

A new Colmar Brunton poll was released today, with the results being misinterpreted. 

Labour fell five points, from 48% to 43%, while National gained one point, going from 43% to 44%.

The other three points that Labour lost both went to their coalition partners, the Greens and NZ First, with NZ First climbing two to 5%, (A result which would see them still in parliament if that was their share of the vote come 2020) and the Greens rising 1 point to 6%,

Unfortunately, the fact that in reality, the coalition is down just one point has been not been covered, with most outlets prioritising the fact that National is ahead of Labour.

And it’s also worth noting that Simon Bridges has just a 10% preferred prime minster rating, while Jacinda Ardern has 37%.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Labour and the coalition – in fact, a difficult month marred with controversy, I’d say they did pretty well to only have gone down one point.

 

Will the Greens dip in the polls affect the waka jumping bill?

Last night, a new Colmar Burton poll came out, and boy, was it big.

Labour was up to 48% – the highest it’s been in 15 years – and NZ First slipped to 3% – below the 5% threshold to get back into parliament.

However, slightly overlooked by most commentators was the Greens fall from 7% to 5% – meaning the Greens are only just above the line to get back into parliament.

Fall any further, and the Greens risk not be in parliament come 2020.

So, that raises the question – what can the Greens do to stop themselves from slipping below the line?

Well, one option is for the Greens to reconsider their support for the waka jumping bill.

The waka jumping bill, which states that if MP’s are expelled from their party, they are expelled from parliament as well.

The bill has faced almost universal opposition from the public.

However, the Greens will be the ones that will be blamed if the bill passes – Given that they are on confidence and supply, they are under no obligation to vote for the bill.

If they do vote for the waka jumping bill to pass, then they will almost certainly drop in the polls.

Meaning that voting against the bill may be a way to score points with the general populace.

On the other hand, worrying about the polls this far away from the election seems silly.

Once again, the Greens are stuck with a very hard choice in front of them. Which way will they lean though?

We will just have to wait and see.

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