Tava’s candidacy a good strategic move
Tava used to be a member of the Greens and ran in the male co-leadership election in 2015 (despite not being an MP) and campaigned on moving away from a left-wing party to centrist environmentalist party.
Tava left the Greens in 2017, stating that he had joined what he thought was an environmentalist party, but was actually a socialist party. He later joined the campaign team for National in the East Coast Bays electorate.
If Tava does end up running for National, then he’ll almost certainly become an MP, as Northcote is a fairly safe seat for National.
But, the fact that he appears to be a front-runner for the nomination hints at National leader Simon Bridge’s long term plans.
Tava’s environmentalist background and the fact that he is a former Green party member makes a clear political statement from National to the Greens.
Bridges is trying to cosy up to them. Bridges is hoping for a teal deal come 2020. And if Tava becomes an MP, then the teal deal chances of happening increase.
Whether a teal deal is achievable though…. Well, that’s another story.
For rural issues, I would say Bridges and National appear to have the trust of the rural electorates, given they once again dominated in those electorates last election.
However, Barrie’s point about how the South Island is being left behind was particularly interesting.
It got me thinking. All the leaders of the current parties (with the exception of James Shaw) are from Auckland, and all the deputies are also from the North Island, as Barrie said.
But this goes further than just a leader-deputy thing.
None of Labour’s top five (Ardern, Davis, Little, Robertson, and Twyford) are from the South Island.
For National, just one of their top five (Bridges, Bennet, Adams, Collins, McClay) is from the South Island – Amy Adams, finance spokesperson and MP for Selwyn.
So I think it’s a fair statement to stay that the South Island’s vote is being taken for granted.
And for the hopeful political parties trying to get into parliament come 2020, trying to tap into the South Island vote could be an incredibly smart move.